Sunday, November 16, 2008

Something bothered me at the end of the Baylor game, besides that I was still listening; JJ had some big plays that didn't matter. It bothered me because it felt familiar. We loose and he has a great box-score game.

Here is a little graph that might help.
This is JJ's cumulative passing yards against our lead (This graph could be made much better if the x-axis was time, but the play-by-play I used doesn't give a per-play clock. If you know of a play-by-play that does give this let me know and I will fix the graph).

60% of his yards came AFTER we were down by 34. This would be fine if we were down 34 at half, but we weren't, this was within a minute of the fourth quarter (Again, don't pay attention to the x-axis, it doesn't indicate time; it's meaningless.).

The majority of his yards came at the end of the game when we were down huge

How often does this happen?

I could only get play-by-play to 6 games: Baylor, OU, KSU, Miami, Army, and Colorado, which is an okay sample. Some wins, some losses, some blowouts. But considering these games...

40% of JJ's passing yards came when were were down 21. I am not sure what to do with this metric. I know our defense stinks, and it's quite possible we are almost always down by three TDs, so I need to look into something better, but that number is hard to ignore.

What about big plays? Half of JJ's 20+ yard plays came when we were down by at least two TDs. 38% came when we were down at least 21.

An really big plays? JJ has had 5 +50 yard plays. We were down by 21 in two, 13 in one, and tied the the other two.

In the interest of full disclosure, we are almost always loosing. In fact, only 16% of JJ's pass attempts came when we weren't loosing. I am not blaming him for all of this, I am just pointing out when he gets his stats.

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