Friday, February 27, 2009
After dropping out of Joe Lunardi's radar for what feels like months we are back, sort of. We are near the top of the "next four out" list. 6th on the waiting list. The good news is that he now predicts 5 Big 12 teams will make the dance; he had only 4 making it for quite some time. The newest add was OSU as a 12 seed. OSU finishes out with Texas, KState, and OU. They could easily not win another game. But OSU is KState's toughest remaining opponesnt. This is when the comonotorics start to give me a headache.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
To save you some time, here is the latest...
Texas A&M probably needs to finish at least .500 in Big 12 play, so it will have to win two of its last three games.cbs:
If they can win out, which would include a victory over top 25 Missouri, they can start packing for the Big Dance. Short of that, however, and they may need a couple wins in the Big 12 tournament to feel a bit more secure.I am not sure why I care about this expert analysis, it's always so obvious; gotta do something between games.
The Houston College Classic is this weekend where we face UC Irvin, Rice, and Houston. That is a bunch of really good teams beating each other up. As Childress put it, "it's going to be better than any regional any of the teams there will play in."
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Coming into this game Nebraska was the best team in the country at forcing turnovers. This certainly true last night. We had almost twice as many as they had, 15-8. While we cleaned it up slightly in the second half, we completely shut them down in the second half.
They scored 18 points in about 30 possessions (using Ken Pomeroy's FGA-OR+TO+0.475*FTA formula for estimating possessions). That is terrible. Their offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions, again from Ken P.) was 60; they average 100.1; the D1 average is 101.1.
I also have to add this facial by Dash.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
I understand that coaches get a technical or kicked out for his team, but doesn't it ruin it if you talk about the decision process? Who the hell asks their assistants the pro's and con's of getting kicked out at a particular point during the game? A 2-10 coach I guess.
Monday, February 23, 2009
Would it be better for A&M to go maybe 1 and done in the big dance or a better run in the NIT.
I can answer this definitively. It is always better to make the tourney.
It would be better to make the tournament and not score a single basket than to win the NIT without letting any opponent score a single basket.
Evidence: programs are measured by how many years in a row they make the tourney, get to the sweet sixteen, elite eight, final four, etc. There is no, "they made the tourney 3 out of the last 5 years, but won the NIT those other 2 years."
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Despite what I said previously about the impact this win would have on our forecast, our probability of a winning in Lincoln only saw a slight bump, from 0.35 to 0.38.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Down by 10 with six minutes left; fight back to within two. The run started just a little late. The loss made even stone faced Josh Carter cry.
However, accoriding to the weather report, it was to be expected, and it didn't really have any impact on our long term forcast, which was lousy 5-11. Essentially we broke even.
One game later and we are (almost) back in business. The Texas win rocketed our long term forcast up to 7-9, with the probability of our predicted two losses at 0.35 (@ Nebraska) and 0.28 (Mizzou). Those are pretty low, but not terrible considering how they are derived. The probablies are based on historical data, which means the Mizzou 0.28 includes four games that have not been played and therefore only the probably of vicorty can be used. If we can convert those highly probably wins to actual wins, there should be some significat upward movement on that 0.28 (it also depends on what Mizzou does between now and then).
If that made no sense, don't worry. The bottom line is that with each win those numbers will move up.
Ken gives us a 0.58 tongiht.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
like them because, even in a blow out, previous teams would always
play really hard, if not smart or well. But this team seems soft and
only plays hard when things are going well.
I may have to change my mind
I just read a story about Billy Gillispie showing his team A&M games
(no link, I am in the DMV and this thing can't cut and paste). From
the headline I thought he was showing some old games, Acid Law/Chris
Walker games. Wrong! They watched games from the current teams, live.
BCG wanted to "show his team his to play." Say what you want about
that SOB, but he is a coach who puts effort and toughness above almost
anything else. I am not. He sees things in this team that I do not.
I will start looking harder.
I hope to see it in Waco.
Saturday, February 7, 2009
which is good enough to convince Ken Pomeroy's stats to favor them by
one. One point is clearly within his margin of error, but these guys
are no joke.
Their top two scores are short gaurds. Clemente (6-1) is good for
almost 15 points and three assists, and Pullen (6-0) is just under
that at 14 and 3. Having never seen these guys play, and knowing
atleast DRo and Dash can play some perimeter D, I will speculate sub
par numbers and a W for the good guys.